If It Ain’t Broke, You Still May Have to Fix It…

“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” is a very common phrase, but a terrible one. This is because it teaches us to only examine results when something fails. This in turn creates biases. It’s actually ironic, that expert predictions decline over time. Meaning the more someone spends in a particular field, the worse they become at actually being an expert. This is due to those biases, which is why it’s ultra important to be critical and examine EVERY outcome. Both the positive and the negative. Mega investor Ray Dalio is touted as “always right” but what I love about him is that while he is primarily right, he points to his method as the cause of that. He assumes he’ll always be wrong and seeks council for other people because together, they’ll have a higher probability of being correct. Amazing! (Here’s two articles I referenced in the lesson: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/how-to-predict-the-future/588040/ & http://newyorker.com/magazine/2005/12/05/everybodys-an-expert.)